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LTE: From Zero to 32 Million in Three Years, says ABI Research
|18 июня 2008|
It will be 2010 before a Long Term Evolution (LTE) network is commercial, however ABI Research forecasts that by 2013, there will be more than 32 million subscribers using LTE networks.
Where in the world will most subscribers be? Asia-Pacific countries says ABI's Nadine Manjaro, who anticipates approximately 12 million Asia-Pacific LTE subscribers, with the balance split 60-40% between Western Europe and North America.
Manjaro partially attributes LTE adoption in China to be a result of waiting too long for 3G licenses. Outside of use during the Olympics, the analyst thinks it unlikely that operators will spend billions on 3G and upgrade soon afterwards.
So how much will those 32 subscribers mean in revenue? Lots. LTE adoption means new hardware and software. First vendors to test equipment will benefit as they ensure interoperability and performance. Next network infrastructure equipment will follow, and on their heels, device manufacturers.
Since LTE is primarily about data, not voice, its first phase will see devices such as USB dongles for computers: ABI Research estimates 53 million to ship by 2013. Because LTE will compete directly with cable and DSL services, in-home modems will also see volume shipments, as will Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) and Ultra-Mobile PCs (UMPCs). Manjaro calls the device market "a huge opportunity."
ABI Research has a new study out on the subject: Long Term Evolution (LTE) that charts LTE's timeline, operator strategies, and migration plans. It also discusses IPR, backhaul, and security, and includes forecasts for subscribers, base stations and femtocells, and lists planned LTE trials and deployments.