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Taiwanese LCD Monitor Industry Growth to Resume in 2Q 09 after Decline in 4Q 08, According to MIC

According to research of the Taipei-based Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) conducted as part of the ITIS project, in 2009 the market for LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) monitors will still be affected by developments in the overall economy.

In the first quarter, some urgent orders will contribute to shipment of the Taiwanese LCD monitor industry's shipment, but they will only provide temporary growth as branded vendors were not aggressive during the fourth quarter in terms of releasing production orders for the first quarter of 2009. It is expected that the Taiwanese LCD monitor industry's shipment volume and value will continue to decline in the first quarter of 2009. Orders in the second quarter are expected to increase. The high inventories of the second half of 2008 have disappeared, while demand in some regional markets is gradually rebounding. As a result, the Taiwanese LCD monitor industry is forecast to experience 4.3% sequential shipment growth in the second quarter of 2009.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, shipment volume of the Taiwanese LCD monitor industry reached 26.1 million units, down 7.4% sequentially and 7.2% year-on-year. Reasons for this shipment decline in what is usually the peak season for the industry included the effects of the global financial crisis, which impacted end-market demand. Growth momentum in regional markets weakened, and emerging markets were also unable to escape the effects of the crisis. Meanwhile, LCD monitor brands and distributors cleared inventories and reduced the number of orders given to contract manufacturers. Also, new low-price PC products such as netbook PCs and all-in-one PCs made a push in the market, affecting the existing desktop PC market and indirectly impacting LCD monitor shipments in the fourth quarter.

Although ASP (Average Selling Price) of the Taiwanese industry continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2008, the panel oversupply situation gradually improved as LCD monitor panel manufacturers cut production and as branded vendors and contract manufacturers gave priority to clearing their inventories. As a result, the scale of LCD monitor panel price declines became smaller in the fourth quarter. This also led to a reduction in the price decline of LCD monitors in the fourth quarter. ASP of the Taiwanese LCD monitor industry fell to US$135.0 in the fourth quarter of 2008, down 3.8% compared to the third quarter. Compared to the 10.8% decline in the third quarter, the fourth quarter decline was much smaller. Shipment value of the Taiwanese LCD monitor industry in the fourth quarter of 2008 reached US$3.52 billion, down 10.9% sequentially and 26.7% year-on-year.

As for shipment destinations of the industry, shares of shipments to mature markets continued to fall, while the shares of shipments to emerging markets, such as China, Latin America and Eastern Europe, continue to grow. The share of shipments to China reached 21.0% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The Chinese government is currently pushing a policy aimed at promoting home appliances in rural areas. PC products are included in the product types which are subsidized as part of this program. For desktop PCs, a specification requirement for companies aiming to bid for the tenders is that the accompanying LCD monitors cannot be smaller than 17". It is expected that the rural home appliance subsidy program in China will start to have a positive impact on LCD monitor shipments starting in the second quarter of 2009.

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