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European telcos' mobile revenue to improve

27 апреля 2010

European telecom operators are expected to report signs of cyclical recovery in mobile revenue numbers, but the domestic fixed-line performance will be mixed.

Sanford Bernstein telecom analysts expect the results "to show that recent weakness in mobile revenues has been in large part cyclical, and that recovery of mobile top line will follow improving GDP as customers take up and pay for new data products."

They expect Telecom Italia SpA, BT Group PLC, Vodafone Group PLC and Deutsche Telekom AG to report results ahead of market expectations, while Telefonica SA, France Telecom and KPN "are more likely to disappoint."

Despite rising expectations, news on shareholder remuneration at Vodafone, and BT's Investor Day should drive solid performance for both, Sanford Bernstein said in a research note.

Telecom analysts at Citigroup don't expect any "negative shocks" so soon after fourth quarter results and guidance."Our concerns remain focused on margin rather than capex given the risks that marketing and distribution costs will need to rise ahead of revenue trends materially picking up and smartphone subsidy spend will move up a gear," Citigroup said.

Citigroup's top picks are Vodafone, Bouygues SA, BT and United Internet AG, which are all rated buy.

Royal KPN NV (Q1 results - 27 April)
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: KPN is expected to deliver a solid set of results consistent with the guidance provided at the time of the fourth-quarter results, JP Morgan says. In its home market KPN faces increasing competition from cable network providers in advance of KPN's fiber roll out, Citigroup analysts say. In Germany, Citigoup sees E-Plus service revenue improving but still negative with a 1% decline in the first quarter compared with a decline of 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

MAIN FOCUS: KPN is currently engaged in a spectrum auction in Germany and secured two 10 megahertz blocks at auction in its Dutch core market. In Germany, E-Plus could emerge without valuable spectrum in the 800 megahertz band, the most cost efficient way to build up fourth generation networks, though KPN confirmed it wants to acquire a valuable combination of spectrum in the auction, including one block in the 800 megahertz frequency band.

Источник: Total Telecom

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