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Mobile network kit market becoming three-horse race

The mobile network equipment market is turning into a three-horse race, with Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) catching up with leaders Ericsson and Huawei, according to telecoms analyst Bengt Nordström.

"The biggest factor has been the change of CEO at NSN," Nordström said to Total Telecom on Wednesday.

Rajeev Suri replaced Simon Beresford-Wylie as CEO of the network vendor in September 2009. For the quarter ended 30 September 2009 the struggling kit maker saw net sales decline 21% to €2.8 billion from €3.5 billion a year earlier. At the beginning of November of that year NSN underwent restructuring in a bid to save €500 million a year until 2011 . The company acknowledged at the time that it had lost market share, and that reversing this trend was its top priority

At the end of last year Nordström predicted another round of vendor consolidation, suggesting that companies the size of Nokia Siemens, Alcatel-Lucent or ZTE would struggle to secure third place by themselves.

However, he has since revised his opinion.

"[NSN] is now one of the most aggressive bidders, winning quite a number of deals, and regaining some of the market share it lost in UMTS," said Nordström on Wednesday.

"It used to be a race between Huawei and Ericsson, but now NSN is creeping up there too."

However, Nordström warned that NSN's revival has done nothing to ease competition in the mobile network market.

He commented that operators that are maintaining relatively consistent capex levels are not necessarily investing less in their networks; it's more likely that equipment prices are declining.

"It's even more intense... it's unhealthy, it's not a sustainable business," he said. "There's only enough room for two to three big players, then a few specialist or regional players."

Nordström said the industry will not discover just how unsustainable the sector in its current state has become until later in the year.

"We'll have a better idea by Q3 or Q4 from a financial point of view. We'll see who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out."

Источник: Total Telecom

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