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Forward Concepts: 2010 to reignite cell phone growth
|03 июня 2010|
Research firm Forward Concepts released select results of its "Global Cellphone Market & Subscriber/Operator Ecosystem" study, showing that worldwide cell phone shipments fell by 0.5 percent in 2009 due to the worldwide economic slowdown.
Forward Concepts publishes study of the worldwide cellphone market and the associated ecosystem of subscribers, operators and technologies. The extensive study, "Global Cellphone Market & Subscriber/Operator Ecosystem" covers over 50 cellphone vendors and their market shares. It also provides dozens of detailed forecasts of the cellphone market by global region and air interface technology within each region through 2014.
Subscriber makeup by population (POPs), air technology (GSM, UMTS, HSPA, CDMA-1x, CDMA EV-DO), mobile Internet subscribers and 2009 subscriber growths are provided for each of 188 individual countries.
Cellular service operators in each global region are profiled by the technologies they employ, their subscribers for each and 2009 subscriber growth.
Some of the key findings from the study are:
Worldwide unit cellphone shipments fell by 0.5% in 2009, as the entire electronics market was muted by global economic conditions. We are forecasting a much healthier 11% growth in 2010 to 1.4 billion units.
Unit growth varies markedly by region, with China's market forecast to grow by 23% in 2010, while Western Europe's will grow by a more sedate 4%.
India will lead in subscriber growth this year, growing an estimated 30% compared to China's 7%.
Apple exhibited the greatest unit growth of all cellphone vendors in 2009, with an 83% growth. Following Apple was Tianyu with 68%, NEC with 46%, RIM with 44%, Inventec with 23%, LGE with 21%, TCL and Huawei each with 17%, Samsung with 16% and HTC with 10%. Of course, the lesser-known companies began with smaller shipment bases.
In smartphones, ZTE had the highest 2009 unit growth, at 160%, with revenues of $400 million in that category, followed by Apple's 83% growth, but with much higher revenues of $13.8 billion.
Smartphones, such as those by RIM, Apple and HTC get the most press, but they only constitute 13% of the unit cellphone market, while so-called feature phones make up 25%.
Budget cellphones, popular in India, China and Africa presently make up 23% of the market, while mid-range units account for the largest market, at 39%. We forecast that the budget market will flatten as their replacements will lead to better growth of mid-range models.