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Android Tablets and Apple IPad Eating into the Computer Market

Much of the growth in the computer market for 2011 is estimated to come from the tablet/pad market, which will ship some 52 million units this year, says Canalys. Of these shipments, Apple is expected to account for over 75%, leaving approximately 12 million units for other vendors.

Canalys anticipates that the iPad's success will continue, and even accelerate, with the arrival of the thinner, lighter and faster iPad 2. This growth means, however, that 'traditional' PC companies, notably Microsoft, Intel and AMD, are likely to lose market share during the year.

"Pads are disrupting the PC refresh cycle in highly penetrated markets," said Canalys Analyst Tim Coulling. "Their innovative user experience has captured the imagination of consumers, who are extending the life of their existing hardware, while taking an interest in pads."

Canalys also urges vendors not to dismiss the opportunity for pads in business: "The number of affluent, highly-mobile executives buying pads will increase quickly in 2011," said Principal Analyst Daryl Chiam. "Likewise, vertical market adoption of pads, especially in healthcare and education, will gain momentum, as more appropriate applications are built."

Notebook and netbook sales will suffer

For every 10 pads sold this year, Canalys estimates that five netbook or notebook sales will be lost, across both consumer and enterprise markets. This trend will be most pronounced in developed markets, such as the United States, Canada, France, Germany, the UK, the Nordics, Benelux, Australia, and Japan.

Canalys expects the notebook PC category to grow nearly 8% in 2011, despite the impact of pads, thanks to the ongoing Windows 7 refresh and improving business confidence in the commercial sector. Netbooks, however, will decline by about 13% to 34 million units.

Overstocked retail channels in many countries, including the United States, much of Western Europe, China and Indonesia, will further hinder notebook growth in the first part of the year. Even Russia, where high oil prices have led to a PC boom, has become oversupplied.

Political revolutions and protests in the Middle East and North Africa have brought the markets there to a virtual stop, and it is difficult to predict how long this disruption will last. There is a risk that political turbulence will spread even further afield. In addition, the recent events in Japan will mean some short-term disruptions to the supply chain, but it will take weeks to fully assess the damage and consequences. Canalys expects that there will likely be a small noticeable impact to global PC shipments.

"The netbook and notebook industry is lucky that Apple's geographical reach remains limited, so that its impact in BRIC1 countries and some other larger markets, such as Indonesia and Turkey, remains small," said Chiam. "In many of these countries, the iPad 2 will be delayed by the need for regulatory approval, and sales may also be restricted by the lack of localized iTunes stores."

"The rise of the pad is phenomenal," said Chiam. "We anticipate the arrival of many more innovative devices in the mobile PC category over the next couple of years."

Источник: Cellular news

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