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Dutch mobile market to shrink in 2011, stay flat until 2015

Dutch mobile revenue will fall this year and stay broadly flat up to 2015, research firm Telecompaper said.

For 2011, Telecompaper forecasts mobile revenue in The Netherlands to fall by 1% to 3% to a range between EUR6 billion and EUR6.1 billion, and to remain flat from 2012 to 2015, down from its previous expectation for growth of 1.6%.

"Mobile terminantion rate reduction will continue to have an impact on voice revenues in the short term, while Voice over internet protocol [or VoIP] will also start to impact and SMS revenues are coming under pressure," said Alejandra van de Roer, Telecompaper senior research analyst."It will be very difficult for operators to counteract these negative trends," she said.

Telecompaper's research underpins recent comments from Royal KPN NV which wants to cut up to a quarter of its Dutch workforce and Deutsche Telekom AG's T-Mobile, which aims to become leaner and more efficient.

The increasing popularity of smartphones, particularly among younger people, has meant voice calls and text messages are being replaced by applications like Skype and data-based messaging service WhatsApp.

According to Telecompaper, the Dutch mobile industry generated EUR1.48 billion in revenue in the first quarter, a fall of 4.7% compared with the same quarter last year, mainly on the sharp drop in voice revenue due to regulatory effects and tough competition.

In terms of overall service revenue, Vodafone Group PLC outperformed the market in the first quarter and was the only operator to show small growth. Both KPN and T-Mobile lost revenue share to Vodafone. Vodafone reinforced its second place position and increased its market share by 1.6%, while KPN dropped 1.1% and T-Mobile fell 0.5%.

The number of mobile SIM cards in the Dutch market increased by 1.4% on year to 20.2 million at the end of March, as a result of which mobile market penetration increased to 121.2% from 120.2%. KPN's position as market leader narrowed slightly to 48% of all subscribers from 49%while Vodafone's market share rose to almost 27%. T-Mobile's market share rose by one percentage point to around 25%, the research firm said.

Источник: Total Telecom

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