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Predictions 2012: Calling It

26 декабря 2011

Total Telecom expects European mobile consolidation, a new owner for Nokia Siemens Networks and an LTE iPhone in 2012.


More M&A

Nokia Siemens Networks will be acquired, probably by a private equity player. NSN failed to tempt private equity investment in 2011. However, now it is selling–or managing for value–anything that is not mobile broadband, it will prove a more attractive prospect.

Vodafone and Wind Hellas will get the nod to merge in Greece, leading more European mobile operators to look at in-market consolidation as the economic crisis further hits consumer spending power.

Or not
AT&T and T-Mobile USA will extend the roaming agreement they announced in December into a full network-sharing pact. Meanwhile, Deutsche Telekom will seek a way of exiting the US altogether. Verizon Wireless, which spent much of 2011 buying up spectrum assets, will go back to differentiating on the quality of its network while its rivals get busy integrating theirs.

Debate over consolidation in India will turn out to be little more than talk. The new telecoms policy will not materialise before 2012. Tight credit markets and the ongoing spectrum scandal will dissuade operators from making any big acquisitions. Strong likelihood of an IPO from Vodafone though.

On the stock market
Facebook will press ahead with its IPO, which will value it in the region of the $100 billion that observers have been talking about, and the world will finally know how much revenue it generates, and its monetisation strategy.

Intellectual property
Patent litigation will be less high-profile than in 2011. However, companies will focus more on their intellectual property for revenue-generation.

Google will be a strong contender to buy patents company InterDigital, pushing up the company’s price. However, it will be beaten to the punch by another technology heavyweight or a consortium.


No entry
Huawei and ZTE will continue in their respective campaigns to enter the US, only to find themselves thwarted by the government on national security grounds. Both companies will continue to appoint Westerners to senior roles as part of ongoing public image campaigns.

Fibre fun
Although the various parties involved in Australia’s national broadband network rollout appear to have reached agreement, things will not be plain-sailing for NBN Co in 2012.

The UK government’s “superfast broadband” plan will start to go awry and targets will be pushed back. Local councils run the risk of missing the February deadline to submit proposals for a slice of the £530 million in funds being put up by BDUK (Broadband Delivery UK). Miscalculations may result in projects being delayed or running over budget.

Data centre opportunity
Investors flock to the data centre space as a safe haven in a difficult economic climate.


Long-Term Excitement
A flurry of LTE announcements will grab headlines worldwide. By the end of the year we’ll be talking about LTE launches in India and China.

Industry hypesters will quickly tire of talking about LTE and move on to speculating about the arrival of LTE-Advanced. There will be numerous trials of the technology, but little chance of commercial services before 2013.

3G licensing in Thailand will remain a long-term dream as the country again fails to meet its deadline of Q1 2012.

Machines rule the world
Everyone will (still) be talking about M2M in 2012. There will be more partnerships in the space as mobile operators admit they are unsure how to proceed alone.

Device developments
Google will hive off and sell Motorola Mobility's devices business.

2012 will be make or break for RIM. BlackBerry 10-powered phones will have to uphold RIM’s reputation among enterprise users for security and reliability, and also come with enough bells and whistles to keep the consumer segment entertained, and attract app developers.

Probably not something a Jobs-era Apple would have done, but the company will finally unveil an LTE iPhone, the iPhone 4GS. By the second half of 2012 the addressable LTE markets in the US, Asia-Pacific, and parts of Europe will be big enough to warrant Apple making its move.

Nokia will launch a Windows-powered tablet in 2012, but not until the end of the year, giving Microsoft enough time to get the OS right.


The industry will grow weary of the term ‘storm clouds’ being used in headlines for articles about the intensifying competition between cloud services providers.

With any luck the term “multi-SIM price plan” will enter the mobile industry vernacular in 2012.

Apple will get so carried away with its litigation spree that it accidentally sues itself for patent infringement.


Источник: Total Telecom

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