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Analyst Predictions: The Wireless Future

27 декабря 2011

Some of the industry’s leading mobile analyst companies share their predictions for 2012 and beyond.


Consolidation ahead

China Mobile will trigger a wave of consolidation after an ill-fated attempt to acquire Deutsche Telekom prompts a merger between the German incumbent and France Telecom. This will spark a flurry of M&A activity as the likes of Telefonica, Telecom Italia and Scandinavian operators scramble for scale. Divestitures made to satisfy regulators will be snapped up by China Mobile. (CCS Insight)

Show me the money

Belt-tightening by consumers in Western Europe will drive mobile operators’ churn rates from 2.3% per month to 2.4% by the end of 2012, representing an extra 7 million people switching provider. (Yankee Group)

Some operators may see data revenues exceed voice revenues by the end of 2012, as compelling data tariffs correct the under-charging that has been inherent to the industry in recent years, reverse top-line revenue decline, and offset falling voice and SMS revenues. (Northstream)


New products on the market

In a bid to counter the competitive threat of Apple and Amazon, Google will leverage its Motorola Mobility assets and develop a cheap Nexus-branded tablet that relies on advertising to offset the subsidised price tag. (CCS Insight)

The recession will have an adverse impact on smartphone and tablet sales, particularly when it comes to unsubsidised devices. A prolonged downturn could have a serious negative impact on sales of dedicated e-readers. (Juniper Research)

The compatibility of Windows 8 with both mobile devices and traditional PCs will create a vast ecosystem of products for app developers to target, driving in uptick in Microsoft’s OS market share and spurring a revival at Nokia. (Juniper Research)

Service split

RIM will restructure into two divisions, one focusing on hardware and another focusing on BlackBerry services and infrastructure. (CCS Insight)

Clouds gather

SIMs will disappear into the cloud driven by Apple, Google, and the growing need for over-the-air (OTA) subscription provisioning. (Northstream)

Amazon’s success in the tablet segment makes it the target of several patent lawsuits. To defends its position in the connected devices market Amazon is obliged to buy companies with relevant intellectual property assets. (CCS Insight)


Hardware issues

The lack of carrier-grade voice support for LTE networks and the subsequent reliance on circuit switch fall back (CSFB) will inhibit LTE uptake in 2012. (Northstream)

Price pressure on mobile infrastructure will ease off as the market matures. Nokia Siemens Networks, Alcatel-Lucent and ZTE are under sufficient financial pressure that they will not be prepared to undercut one another in order to win market share and peg back leaders Ericsson and Huawei. (Northstream)

Addressing data usage

Operators will worry less about pricing and instead will focus on finding a vendor partner that will help them plan and optimise their networks as mobile data consumption continues to rise. (Northstream)


The pull of video

Google will acquire Netflix by 2013 in a bid to augment YouTube’s ad-funded distribution model that is focused on short, home-made clips with a richer content distribution platform. (CCS Insight)

Video consumption on tablets will more than double in the first six months of 2012, driven by the launch of operator-backed TV everywhere services and authenticated content models that include streaming video to tablets. (Yankee Group)

Remote controls

Apple iOS products will emerge as the primary hardware controllers for home automation products. Meanwhile Facebook will become the online control panel for many connected homes. (CCS Insight)

Bubble breaker

The investment bubble for consumer-focused social networks will burst in 2013 on the realisation that opportunities to differentiate in a market where players with overlapping features compete for a finite audience have been and gone. (Gartner)



Android’s share of the smartphone OS market will fall for the first time in 2013 as licensees look to lower their dependency on the Google-owned platform to offer a more balanced portfolio, and tap into consumer interest in other operating systems. In addition, litigation could drive up the cost of using the Android OS. (CCS Insight)

...and beyond

Mobile application development projects aimed at smartphones and tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a four-to-one ratio by 2015. (Gartner)

By 2016 at least 50% of enterprise email users will rely primarily on a browser, tablet, or mobile client instead of a desktop client. Market opportunities for mobile device management platform vendors will soar. (Gartner)

Источник: Total Telecom

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