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Street Reacts To Dolan Offer
|16 октября 2006|
On the table is a bid at $27 per share - a proposal that values the total equity of Cablevision at around $7.9 billion (with an implied enterprise value of approximately $19.2 billion). According to Bernstein Research's Craig Moffett, the bid raises two main questions: 1) Will the offer be deemed adequate by independent directors, and 2) will one - or more - counter offers emerge with a higher bid?
"Sixteen months ago, Cablevision's privatization plans stumbled over the independent directors' valuation," Moffett said. And although this time the offer is for the entire company, "it will once again be the valuation of Cablevision's other assets that could prove most nettlesome."
As far as the Dolans' bid drawing a competing offer from Time Warner (TWX) or Comcast? Unlikely, said the analyst, because if the family is able to take Cablevision private there is nothing to stop them from doing a deal with TWX or Comcast some time down the road. "There is therefore likely to be no great urgency to intervene on the part of the other logical buyers," the analyst said.
So will the deal go through? Banc of America's Doug Shapiro said it has a better chance than the first attempt, but the family will probably have to raise its bid. Why are the Dolan's making this move now? Hard to tell, Shapiro said, but what is clear is that "the family's willingness to collateralize all its stock and take on such significant leverage is that it isn't particularly concerned about the... competitive dynamic."
Said the Dolan's in a statement, "We are convinced that private ownership is highly desirable, and we are willing to assume the risks to ensure that Cablevision has the structure and flexibility it needs to continue to succeed and grow."
Time will tell.
Source: The Business BRIDGE
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