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80% of Web users will choose mobile broadband over fixed by 2013

Ericsson said this week it expects 80% of global Internet subscribers will connect via mobile broadband instead of fixed by 2013.

"That includes people who have abandoned their fixed-line connection in favour of mobile broadband, or are new broadband subscribers that have selected a mobile connection over a fixed one," commented John Cunliffe, Ericsson's CTO of North-Western Europe.

Key to the migration will be the ease of installation and of use of mobile broadband, he explained in an interview with Total Telecom.

"Installation of a fixed connection into the customer premises is a nightmare for both the consumer and the service provider, compared to a mobile connection which self-installs and automatically connects to the network," he said.

"Plus more [mobile] operators are subsidising the cost of laptops," he added.

Citing recent statistics from the Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA), Cunliffe pointed out that there are 805 different HSDPA devices from 129 suppliers available on the market. 118 of those devices are notebook computers made by Dell, H-P, Lenovo, Toshiba and LG.

On the subject of LTE, Cunliffe said Ericsson is on track to have commercially available network products by 2009, with devices launching during the following year, bringing with them the promise of higher connection speeds.

"Under perfect conditions we're demonstrating speeds of around 160 megabits per second... LTE might cause fixed-line substitution to accelerate," he said.

Cunliffe said that over the last 12 months Ericsson has been running LTE tests in Sweden. These have taken place in urban environment, with clear line of sight between the cell tower and the device for less than 40% of the time, while moving at speeds of up to 45 kilometres per hour.

"We recorded peak speeds of 154 Mbps, an average of 78 Mbps, and minimum speeds of around 16 Mbps," he said.

"The tests help by giving us the confidence in our ability to deliver high connection speeds in a real situation," he added.

Meanwhile Cunliffe also talked up the use of hybrid networks to extend broadband access to rural and remote areas.

Referring to a recent report by Analysys Mason, he said that the cost of deploying a national fibre-to-the-cabinet (FTTC) network jumps significantly to reach the last 20% of users. That is, to build a network to cover 80% of the population would cost $3 billion, rising to $5 billion to reach 100%.

For a nationwide fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) network based on GPON, he said the cost jumps from £13 billion to £24.5 billion to go from 80% to 100% of the population.

"Affording that amount to only reach an extra 20% of the population is quite hard, but one solution is to hybridise it with a mobile network," Cunliffe said .

Источник: Total Telecom

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