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Android to dominate smartphone market by 2014

Google's Android platform will have the largest share of the global smartphone operating system market by 2014, overtaking Nokia's Symbian, according to a new report from Analysys Mason.

By the same date, 26% (or 1.7 billion) of all handsets in use worldwide will be smartphones, driven by growth in developing markets and efforts to extend the smartphone experience to lower tiers of the market, the study also showed.

As it stands, Android powers just 1% of the close to 600 million smartphones in circulation, but the analyst firm predicts this will rise to 30% by 2014. That puts Android a whisker ahead of Symbian, which is forecast to claim a market share of 29% by the same date, compared with more than 50% in 2010.

"Android will find a niche in both developed and emerging markets," the Analysys Mason report said, while Symbian's scale will come largely from the growth markets Nokia has said it will target.

"Smartphone OSs in the second tier (which include bada, iPhone OS and Blackberry OS) are likely to be relatively successful in either developed or emerging markets, but not in both," the company said. For example, it sees iPhone and Windows Mobile gaining a stronger presence in developed markets, due to the high-end nature of the devices they run on, while bada will have more of an impact in emerging markets.

Smartphone growth between 2010 and 2014 – seen at a CAGR of 32% - will be fuelled by emerging markets – emerging Asia-Pacific, central and Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa in particular. However, these high growth rates of between 52% and 65% come on top of a low starting point compared with other regions.

"Smartphone markets in the developed world will continue to be fiercely competitive, but key handset manufacturers such as Nokia and Samsung are lining up to tap a new opportunity in emerging markets," said Jim Morrish, author of the report and principal analyst at Analysys Mason's mobile content and applications unit.

"The ingredients of a successful mobile data proposition in emerging markets will be different to those in developed markets, and I don't think that an iPhone will be one of them," he added.

Analysys Mason advises operators in emerging markets to ensure they are prepared for the growth in smartphone numbers and to put plans in place to avoid quality of service issues

Источник: Total Telecom

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