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4G subs to hit 90 million by 2013
|06 марта 2008|
The number of subscribers to next generation wireless services worldwide, including both LTE and WiMAX, is expected to top 90 million by 2013.
Analyst house ABI Research said that it expects migration to HSPA+ to begin in early 2010, with migration to 4G technology LTE commencing by the middle of the same year.
ABI forecasts the total number of WCDMA and HSPA subscribers to approach 720 million in 2013.
But ABI Research analyst Hwai Lin Khor said, "Some operators may not be ready to move on to LTE, as the peak data rates of 100Mbps downlink and 50Mbps uplink are achievable only with a 20MHz spectrum band. That is a luxury that most operators may not have, and many may be content with the capabilities of HSPA+ or settle for suboptimal LTE data rates with whatever they have at the time."
The company's vice president for the Asia Pacific region, Jake Saunders, said that while the long term roadmap for CDMA2000, especially in relation to UMB, looks more uncertain, CDMA operators are taking advantage of current upgrade possibilities. "Many have upgraded portions of their networks to EV-DO Rev. A during 2007 while new CDMA entrants start with Rev A."
ABI expects the total number of CDMA2000 subscribers, including 1x and various flavours of EV-DO, to approach 800 million by the end of 2013.
Figures released by telecoms.com parent Informa Telecoms & Media revealed that worldwide mobile penetration hit 50 per cent - or around 3.3 billion subscriptions - in late November, just over 26 years since the first cellular network was launched.
Informa estimates that mobile networks covered 90 per cent of the global population by mid-2007. This means that some 40 per cent of the world's inhabitants are covered by a network, but not connected, and leaves just 10 per cent with neither coverage nor connection.
Although global mobile penetration - the number of mobile subscriptions worldwide - has reached 50 per cent, this does not mean that half of the 6.6 billion or so people in the world now have a mobile phone.
A large number of more mature markets worldwide already have in excess of 100 per cent mobile penetration, as users increasingly sign up for more than one subscription, while emerging markets increasingly provide the bulk of new additions.